Wish that Martti could say he is getting better healthwise, but that is not really true :( Fever is a companion for nearly a year in a row now, nothing that they sell in the Prince of OZ "medical center" seems to help, strength is just enough to allow to extend an arm towards a cup of something nice to drink, and it does not taste anything anyway, and the "warm fuzzy feeling" often sought from drinking is present with or without it, and accompanied with several types of pain.
Just as Martti was blessing himself for having houses and funds and even a servant to take care of him, unlike the ones who live and die on the "streets" (nobody does it literally, because there are so many shelters in the town, Martti also started from one) - a boy comes to tell the news: The King (who has been affected by the same disease) feels his time has come and is giving a final farewell in the Central Square. Martti did not know the king, and calculated that he has such a plentiful number of closer people around him that going to the outer circle might not be useful.
Martti is young and does not know that dying people are usually very alone when still dying. Once dead, however, they start to receive visitors in increasing numbers. Even Martti feels it's normal to pay homage to the dead body of the former king, but was hesitating to chat with him when he was living (or dying). Life is funny, and death especially, if you start to think about it.
So, the King is dead. And Martti is suffering from the same. And since it is contagious, next year quite a few will found some difficult health challenges to cope with.
The severity of the condition prohibits thinking and planning. This is the reason today's blog is again void of practical matters.
lauantai 26. maaliskuuta 2016
keskiviikko 23. maaliskuuta 2016
May 1632 - Day 71-72
A flu, worse than anything Martti had ever experienced or even thought was possible, caught him before Christmas and has been tormenting him since. It is a new, intolerable suffering to not being able to drink, smoke, think, or speak (a month without uttering but a few words, and them out of necessity being "get the hell out of here" combined with a minute of infernal coughing).
In the midst of this agony, Martti's waiter announces that he heard Martti was Knighted (administratively, without granting him knighthood in a specific chivalric order). Martti is dumbfounded. He was considering this a possibility when he was suffering the troubles of the Dragon Quest, but the dragon cheated in the first encounter, and nothing happened once Martti came back.
So his idea turned back to the Master (L6) route, which would allow about 10-15 more years of salaries. Under the current system, nobles do not receive any salary, so the difference between getting Baronized via Knight (L11) is 15 mil less money than via Master.
Because it is the 200th anniversary of the throne room, a largish number of commoners were ennobled and nobles promoted (8 in total). ChrisPop was also knighted and Red Erin is finally officially Baroness, after the King had promised this to happen to all the Manor lords long time ago. It is rumored that Martti's promotion was because of the dragon quest after all, and Sir Crichton had been soliciting the idea to the King.
Martti opts for being called Knight Martti for now. Sir Martti sounds too preposterous. Blue suit he already has, and is aiming to keep the ancient red one as well, considering in his mind that owning a blue suit is enough in this situation, it is still possible to wear red in business. Martti also considers keeping a servant grey set for the quests.
Being unable to think, suits very badly with trying to fix the bids and asks, so Martti gives up after a quarter-hour of useless trying. He is happy to see the M balance at 10 mil though, which will allow more business when the strength and clarity comes back.
maanantai 21. maaliskuuta 2016
January 1631 - Day 70
Martti is 25! Health is Good and Wisdom is 5. As was discussed in the previous posts, the financials are in good order. It is only if you get entangled with too short term, you start to panic or lose the big picture.
Becoming Earl will probably be more difficult even, than to get the 1,000 mil. Or at least it requires that the game "opens" to much more players during the time (which of course is planned). Because not everyone can be an Earl, the originally quite modest requirements have crept up so that few earls even have only 1,000 mil in assets!
Upon checking his belongings, Martti notices some wine bottles, bought as merchandise, but difficult to sell on. Wine is special in that most things either clearly increase in value by paying dividends etc. (CON), or have a fixed price and spoil annually (MEAD), but Wines (20 different exist) are an investment early during the life, and become a liability in the latter part because they spoil as a one-time event and turn undrinkable.
Of such large selection, everyone finds a suitable wine for him and Martti could very well start considering as well. W1620 ask is as low as 13k per bottle, so it should already trump beer-drinking. How? Wines are believed to be about twice as healthy as beer, and the W1620 is 14/20 points, 11 years old French wine, so nothing to be sneered at. Its only disadvantage is too large stock levels in relation to the fact that the wine will start declining now. So clearance sale. The rest of the claim is proven by varietyBonus that is up to 4.0 if only 1 bottle is consumed.
With the believed 2:1 health ratio and observed 13:3 price ratio, and assuming that BEER is anyway consumed so much that its frequencyBonus is completely used, it makes sense to consume W1620 until its frequencyBonus marginal benefit goes below 2.17. In this case it happens already at 4 bottles for not much gain, but the formula is good to keep in mind and low bids placed, which change the dynamics much more (even at the current bid = 10k buy price, the optimal consume threshold is 12 bottles already).
Becoming Earl will probably be more difficult even, than to get the 1,000 mil. Or at least it requires that the game "opens" to much more players during the time (which of course is planned). Because not everyone can be an Earl, the originally quite modest requirements have crept up so that few earls even have only 1,000 mil in assets!
Upon checking his belongings, Martti notices some wine bottles, bought as merchandise, but difficult to sell on. Wine is special in that most things either clearly increase in value by paying dividends etc. (CON), or have a fixed price and spoil annually (MEAD), but Wines (20 different exist) are an investment early during the life, and become a liability in the latter part because they spoil as a one-time event and turn undrinkable.
Of such large selection, everyone finds a suitable wine for him and Martti could very well start considering as well. W1620 ask is as low as 13k per bottle, so it should already trump beer-drinking. How? Wines are believed to be about twice as healthy as beer, and the W1620 is 14/20 points, 11 years old French wine, so nothing to be sneered at. Its only disadvantage is too large stock levels in relation to the fact that the wine will start declining now. So clearance sale. The rest of the claim is proven by varietyBonus that is up to 4.0 if only 1 bottle is consumed.
With the believed 2:1 health ratio and observed 13:3 price ratio, and assuming that BEER is anyway consumed so much that its frequencyBonus is completely used, it makes sense to consume W1620 until its frequencyBonus marginal benefit goes below 2.17. In this case it happens already at 4 bottles for not much gain, but the formula is good to keep in mind and low bids placed, which change the dynamics much more (even at the current bid = 10k buy price, the optimal consume threshold is 12 bottles already).
sunnuntai 20. maaliskuuta 2016
December 1631 - Day 69
Martti is on the black! Some of the asks were fulfilled, so the health challenge is much easier to finish :) That does not go further than Moderate, though. Even if the frequency bonus looks insignificant on paper (fully utilised vs. completely neglected: the difference is about 15%), in practice it seems to hurt quite much if one is accustomed to daily consuming and changes practices.
Martti's original loan for the 2 houses in 4-NW from the (current) Prince Noms is 15.7 mil payable in 1640. The he has a loan from Marquess of Rome, 18.8 mil in 1642. Finally he is also in a loose partnership with the same, and has a facility of 20 mil. So when admiring Martti's riches, the 54.5 mil debt is to be duly taken into account as well.
It is a good time to count the money, and ascertain if the retirements and moth-eaten suits actually were a devastating blow to the finances, or just looked like one:
1. Martti has 4 lots:
- 2 small houses. When wood building comes, these will probably become a liability with no bonuses to the likely new owners, so it makes more sense to bulldoze them and build wood in their place. But if this is the fate, the land will need to compete in the market with Town free land, and the value of the stone and windows retrieved is only about 3 mil per house.
- The larger 250 sqm free land lot will probably become Martti's residence for a while - unless he becomes ennobled first - to tap into the commoner bonuses.
- 22-N-D13, the "joker in the deck": this lot is 225 sqm and has a nice east-south facing, +45% chapelry bonus, 50 m from the Playground, and only 150 m from the Barbican, so 300 m from the Most Old Obelisk. Next to this, a landlocked 300 sqm one is asked 100 mil (and not selling). Perhaps a book value of 45 mil is correct, but that does not mean Martti is too keen to sell it yet. On the other side of the wall, price of land is 5x or more.
=> All-in-all, only 50 mil can be attributed to these, as land in B.4 is practically unsalable.
2. Martti employs ("owns") 23 NPCs. This is a quite massive operation in a game that has only ~1,500 NPC. Half of the NPCs are producing loss each year as tehy are in the training levels. Once they promote, profit will be realised.
=> At midprice, the workforce is worth 30 mil.
3. The production shares are worth quite a lot, producing 500*MEAD, 200*MEAT, 100*VEG and 100*CAN annually (1.5 mil worth minimum). Most are not free-trading though, limiting the value (only people who can own them, do not have money to pay for them, and get them for almost free). The 1-S-VE1 will start to have a reasonable valuation soon, so we estimate
=> Production shares are worth 25 mil in total (@ 6% yield).
4. The "Others" category, which might be expanded in another post, contained merchandise, consumables, and Martti's personal valuables. Nothing of gold or silver was found, so far all attempts to save an emergency stash have been rewarded by having immediate use for it.
=> The rest of Martti's items together, are 35 mil.
So, 140 mil in assets and 55 in debt, leaves net worth at 85 mil. Suddenly (in only 68 days out of perhaps 300 available), Martti's lifetime goal of reaching 1,000 mil wealth has become much closer.
The other goal, becoming Earl, is also progressing, at a pace that seems slow unless you forget about it and then look back. Looking back now, Martti has progressed from L2 to L3 to L4 to L5, and has L6, L13 and L14 ahead, (if the "power player track" materialises). In the recent round he was skipped since he did not fulfill the minimum age for Master (25y), and none of the nobles whom Martti had assisted had proposed him Knighted. In the next round, he has been 6 years in L5, and is 27 years, and a quite likely candidate to become Master. There is even a lane named after Martti already!
So, losing several suits and workforce is a terrible blow, but Martti has managed to recover reasonably well. The liquidity position is still precarious but that seems like the correct play, this early in the game.
Martti's original loan for the 2 houses in 4-NW from the (current) Prince Noms is 15.7 mil payable in 1640. The he has a loan from Marquess of Rome, 18.8 mil in 1642. Finally he is also in a loose partnership with the same, and has a facility of 20 mil. So when admiring Martti's riches, the 54.5 mil debt is to be duly taken into account as well.
It is a good time to count the money, and ascertain if the retirements and moth-eaten suits actually were a devastating blow to the finances, or just looked like one:
1. Martti has 4 lots:
- 2 small houses. When wood building comes, these will probably become a liability with no bonuses to the likely new owners, so it makes more sense to bulldoze them and build wood in their place. But if this is the fate, the land will need to compete in the market with Town free land, and the value of the stone and windows retrieved is only about 3 mil per house.
- The larger 250 sqm free land lot will probably become Martti's residence for a while - unless he becomes ennobled first - to tap into the commoner bonuses.
- 22-N-D13, the "joker in the deck": this lot is 225 sqm and has a nice east-south facing, +45% chapelry bonus, 50 m from the Playground, and only 150 m from the Barbican, so 300 m from the Most Old Obelisk. Next to this, a landlocked 300 sqm one is asked 100 mil (and not selling). Perhaps a book value of 45 mil is correct, but that does not mean Martti is too keen to sell it yet. On the other side of the wall, price of land is 5x or more.
=> All-in-all, only 50 mil can be attributed to these, as land in B.4 is practically unsalable.
2. Martti employs ("owns") 23 NPCs. This is a quite massive operation in a game that has only ~1,500 NPC. Half of the NPCs are producing loss each year as tehy are in the training levels. Once they promote, profit will be realised.
=> At midprice, the workforce is worth 30 mil.
3. The production shares are worth quite a lot, producing 500*MEAD, 200*MEAT, 100*VEG and 100*CAN annually (1.5 mil worth minimum). Most are not free-trading though, limiting the value (only people who can own them, do not have money to pay for them, and get them for almost free). The 1-S-VE1 will start to have a reasonable valuation soon, so we estimate
=> Production shares are worth 25 mil in total (@ 6% yield).
4. The "Others" category, which might be expanded in another post, contained merchandise, consumables, and Martti's personal valuables. Nothing of gold or silver was found, so far all attempts to save an emergency stash have been rewarded by having immediate use for it.
=> The rest of Martti's items together, are 35 mil.
So, 140 mil in assets and 55 in debt, leaves net worth at 85 mil. Suddenly (in only 68 days out of perhaps 300 available), Martti's lifetime goal of reaching 1,000 mil wealth has become much closer.
The other goal, becoming Earl, is also progressing, at a pace that seems slow unless you forget about it and then look back. Looking back now, Martti has progressed from L2 to L3 to L4 to L5, and has L6, L13 and L14 ahead, (if the "power player track" materialises). In the recent round he was skipped since he did not fulfill the minimum age for Master (25y), and none of the nobles whom Martti had assisted had proposed him Knighted. In the next round, he has been 6 years in L5, and is 27 years, and a quite likely candidate to become Master. There is even a lane named after Martti already!
So, losing several suits and workforce is a terrible blow, but Martti has managed to recover reasonably well. The liquidity position is still precarious but that seems like the correct play, this early in the game.
lauantai 19. maaliskuuta 2016
November 1631 - Day 67-68
Martti has made a friend: a contemporary of his (both are 24-25 y), Rakshasa has come to town and has already read all of Martti's histories, holds them in high regard, and aims to surpass Martti in progress soon. What could be better! :)
Well, not waking up to a -21 mil balance perhaps... The recent NPC round included the retire&promote part, and 5 of Martti's tailors decided to retire. Only 2 promoted, and 5 suits got eaten by the great moth - the ancient one was spared luckily. To top it up, Labor dumped on quite a number of Martti NPC bids, which of course is good (cheap workforce) but makes the cashflow quite problematic.
Martti's longer term plan was to crunch the numbers of all NPCs with a probabilistic simulation, since none of the essential information of probabilities is hidden. But that will have to wait now - there is urgent business now.
Getting back to the black is not an easy exercise, because few of Martti's items are readily tradable. Even a visit to the Gilded Goose and backroom dealings with antiques was required. After a suit spoil round, at least suits should fly off the shelves, but they don't do it immediately, so asks need to be placed with insight. Even health was difficult to be finished as negative balance forbids placement of bids. A lousy day all in all.
In the larger game side, everyone is still waiting for Buildings, and in the meantime, they got a valuation calculation. The game is worth 1.14 M XMR (about the same in fiat). With the ingame items, a basic rule holds that: larger item marketcap causes better liquidity, which causes its price to go up, and this causes the liquidity to get even better, pushing the yield down. The premier investment, CKG, has had an about 0.3% yield, and CON has about 0.5%.
Loan can be had at 1.5%, and in the trading-intensive, small, risky, younameit, items, yield should far surpass the loan cost. The retirement of so many tailors was devastating, though, and only longer term will prove whether the business was good in the first place. (In the very long term, things will balance out because clothes are always in need.)
Well, not waking up to a -21 mil balance perhaps... The recent NPC round included the retire&promote part, and 5 of Martti's tailors decided to retire. Only 2 promoted, and 5 suits got eaten by the great moth - the ancient one was spared luckily. To top it up, Labor dumped on quite a number of Martti NPC bids, which of course is good (cheap workforce) but makes the cashflow quite problematic.
Martti's longer term plan was to crunch the numbers of all NPCs with a probabilistic simulation, since none of the essential information of probabilities is hidden. But that will have to wait now - there is urgent business now.
Getting back to the black is not an easy exercise, because few of Martti's items are readily tradable. Even a visit to the Gilded Goose and backroom dealings with antiques was required. After a suit spoil round, at least suits should fly off the shelves, but they don't do it immediately, so asks need to be placed with insight. Even health was difficult to be finished as negative balance forbids placement of bids. A lousy day all in all.
In the larger game side, everyone is still waiting for Buildings, and in the meantime, they got a valuation calculation. The game is worth 1.14 M XMR (about the same in fiat). With the ingame items, a basic rule holds that: larger item marketcap causes better liquidity, which causes its price to go up, and this causes the liquidity to get even better, pushing the yield down. The premier investment, CKG, has had an about 0.3% yield, and CON has about 0.5%.
Loan can be had at 1.5%, and in the trading-intensive, small, risky, younameit, items, yield should far surpass the loan cost. The retirement of so many tailors was devastating, though, and only longer term will prove whether the business was good in the first place. (In the very long term, things will balance out because clothes are always in need.)
torstai 17. maaliskuuta 2016
July 1631 - Day 66
Quick login, aaaand... the funds are UP! In the times of sluggish demand in many items, this is of course good news, as it allows placing more low bids!
A check of changelog reveals that a few suits were sold, with the most expensive one being a WOS-C1 (orange). It was probably bought before the revaluation, so did not yield a real profit but the price was reasonable nevertheless: 5.39 mil. The tailors that produce this type (TAI-6) cost 1.5 mil salary, and the yield is every two years, so the tailor business still looks like a viable choice. Martti's tailors are still very far from TAI-6, though.. (highest is TAI-2).
The NPC situation was promised for analysis. Some NPC have special meaning (such as army) and Martti has no interest in them since he is not playing those subgames. Others have a fixed payout, but its value may vary (such as tailors). Both IC and SCI midprices have fallen and are still not settled, so buying NPC that produce them, might end up being good or bad foresight. Having low bids just in case someone dumps them, lowers the risk, but it is also true that in certain market conditions, certain NPC just don't catch a bid and need to be fired instead to cut the losses.
Out of many analysed, Martti finds COOK-1 to be reasonable value even at ask (1.5 mil), because it has good promotion chances to COOK-2, which produces straight money. Three were hired and bid placed if anyone wants to part with (which is very unlikely as the "ancient" ones have long since promoted). COOK-2 also has a bid now.
S-B22B also requires analysis. Martti's back-of-the-envelope says that the corporation is able to quarry 50 million stone at an average 20 m profit (for 1,000 mil profit from operations). In addition, 1,000 mil is already realised from selling land, and 2,000 mil is possible. Divided by the sharecount (3,400), this gives the price of 1.18 mil per share, neatly between bid and ask (1.3/0.8). Seems that the others can count as well. - Oh sorry, it appears that Martti already held both the best bid and ask...
The NPC situation was promised for analysis. Some NPC have special meaning (such as army) and Martti has no interest in them since he is not playing those subgames. Others have a fixed payout, but its value may vary (such as tailors). Both IC and SCI midprices have fallen and are still not settled, so buying NPC that produce them, might end up being good or bad foresight. Having low bids just in case someone dumps them, lowers the risk, but it is also true that in certain market conditions, certain NPC just don't catch a bid and need to be fired instead to cut the losses.
Out of many analysed, Martti finds COOK-1 to be reasonable value even at ask (1.5 mil), because it has good promotion chances to COOK-2, which produces straight money. Three were hired and bid placed if anyone wants to part with (which is very unlikely as the "ancient" ones have long since promoted). COOK-2 also has a bid now.
S-B22B also requires analysis. Martti's back-of-the-envelope says that the corporation is able to quarry 50 million stone at an average 20 m profit (for 1,000 mil profit from operations). In addition, 1,000 mil is already realised from selling land, and 2,000 mil is possible. Divided by the sharecount (3,400), this gives the price of 1.18 mil per share, neatly between bid and ask (1.3/0.8). Seems that the others can count as well. - Oh sorry, it appears that Martti already held both the best bid and ask...
So yes, soem cooks were purchased, and the tailor bids updated. That is it for now, until Sir Crichton wants to go and slay the dragon again. Then the business concerns will need to be put aside!
keskiviikko 16. maaliskuuta 2016
May 1631 - Day 62-65
Huh, quite a marathon run without logging in! Unlike some games, here you don't destroy 65 days worth of progress if you miss a day, but a few soft penalties occur by neglecting the game for a long time (real-time is used):
- Every time more than 20 hours pass without consuming something, the frequencyBonus does not accrue. The effect of this is quite mild, it will mean a little larger health hit, or the need to consume a bit more expensive stuff to get the same result.
- If a calendar week passes with no eating, or it is grossly inadequate, a severe health hit occurs. The young people still can live about 5 years before they die, so this is not the end of the world (except for the ancients, for whom it literally can be).
- Most game happenings run in 48-72 hour cycles, or even faster. Missing out of opportunities is very real if you take a longer break.
- For effective market participation (daytrading), it makes sense to be on the alert all the day, and quite good result can be had for 2/day checking. Even 1/day (Martti's normal) rules out many trading strategies that just do require a more intense participation.
- (This is coming in the future but want to advertise) When Action Points (AP) are started, they are expected to have a max reserve of 7 AP (56 hours). Since consuming all your AP is not usually smart, this also steers the active players to the direction that they get the most benefits from daily login, can easily miss 1, 2, or 3 times a week, but if the breaks get longer than 48-72 hours, the soft penalties will take hold and ignoring the game for weeks means death.
So, the long introduction was to the announcement: Martti was so busy that he forgot to finalise his health. And what's worse: there is no way to know how badly, as he forgot where it was when busy took hold! :( So with shaking fingers, log in, command HEALTH:
You may still eat 200 units, drink 200 units and use 200 units of wisdom this year. Your remaining health challenge is Severe. Your overall health is Good
For now, he only knows that the visible health rank did not decline. And the current year is already in May. Martti got a lot of mead and meat from his production, and listed most but left quite some for own consumption (to be administered later). It does not pay to skimp anymore with health, especially after the blunder last year.
When going through the items list, a new feature concerning intown farms was found out. This post explains it better. Anyone can buy land and make farms in the town (as long as there is land available). But this is costly. The production shares are free trading, so unlike before, there is no 1/char limit on S-VE1 vegetable production. They used to go for 3-4 mil per share when still in the old system, but now with free trading, it's expected that the price would settle at near the "new farm threshold" of about 15 mil. So nice windfall indeed! :) Because farming is not a high-yield business, Martti seeks to divest this share and invest it in S-B22B rather if they are dumped on his bids.
The tailors produced something, but prices are pressured. WOS-G needs to be sold at a loss, and WOS-F is selling at 890k (cost=750k). Longer term, the tailors can only make profit if they promote instead of dying, and the higher level suits market is revitalised. Both conditions need to be fulfilled.
This year is the promote&retire&spoil round for all, and before that it's time to make purchases. So let's get into that analysis next time and hopefully keep some powder dry now (with all the bids placed already).
- Every time more than 20 hours pass without consuming something, the frequencyBonus does not accrue. The effect of this is quite mild, it will mean a little larger health hit, or the need to consume a bit more expensive stuff to get the same result.
- If a calendar week passes with no eating, or it is grossly inadequate, a severe health hit occurs. The young people still can live about 5 years before they die, so this is not the end of the world (except for the ancients, for whom it literally can be).
- Most game happenings run in 48-72 hour cycles, or even faster. Missing out of opportunities is very real if you take a longer break.
- For effective market participation (daytrading), it makes sense to be on the alert all the day, and quite good result can be had for 2/day checking. Even 1/day (Martti's normal) rules out many trading strategies that just do require a more intense participation.
- (This is coming in the future but want to advertise) When Action Points (AP) are started, they are expected to have a max reserve of 7 AP (56 hours). Since consuming all your AP is not usually smart, this also steers the active players to the direction that they get the most benefits from daily login, can easily miss 1, 2, or 3 times a week, but if the breaks get longer than 48-72 hours, the soft penalties will take hold and ignoring the game for weeks means death.
So, the long introduction was to the announcement: Martti was so busy that he forgot to finalise his health. And what's worse: there is no way to know how badly, as he forgot where it was when busy took hold! :( So with shaking fingers, log in, command HEALTH:
You may still eat 200 units, drink 200 units and use 200 units of wisdom this year. Your remaining health challenge is Severe. Your overall health is Good
For now, he only knows that the visible health rank did not decline. And the current year is already in May. Martti got a lot of mead and meat from his production, and listed most but left quite some for own consumption (to be administered later). It does not pay to skimp anymore with health, especially after the blunder last year.
When going through the items list, a new feature concerning intown farms was found out. This post explains it better. Anyone can buy land and make farms in the town (as long as there is land available). But this is costly. The production shares are free trading, so unlike before, there is no 1/char limit on S-VE1 vegetable production. They used to go for 3-4 mil per share when still in the old system, but now with free trading, it's expected that the price would settle at near the "new farm threshold" of about 15 mil. So nice windfall indeed! :) Because farming is not a high-yield business, Martti seeks to divest this share and invest it in S-B22B rather if they are dumped on his bids.
The tailors produced something, but prices are pressured. WOS-G needs to be sold at a loss, and WOS-F is selling at 890k (cost=750k). Longer term, the tailors can only make profit if they promote instead of dying, and the higher level suits market is revitalised. Both conditions need to be fulfilled.
This year is the promote&retire&spoil round for all, and before that it's time to make purchases. So let's get into that analysis next time and hopefully keep some powder dry now (with all the bids placed already).
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