keskiviikko 10. helmikuuta 2016

May 1626 - Day 30

What was prophesied in the last day report, became true right after - Martti sees a 1.3 mil negative balance after being more than 5 mil on the black. The culprit is the very nice price WOS-B1 Merchant Red suit, which Martti almost decides to keep.

The next spoil round is in 3 years, and the probability for a suit spoiling is 10% per year max (so 30%), and probably a little less for a red which is not used in hard work. Although the suit either spoils or not - and so far Martti has been lucky - we can multiply the spoil probability by the suit price (the "GM list price" which the market is not obligated to follow) and arrive at the average cost-of-carry, which in the case is almost 1 mil/year, more than Martti spends on all consumables combined, and more than double the worth of his house incomes.

Merchant red is a very nice suit, and designed to be expensive to maintain, to differentiate merchants (who have 1 mil per year extra) from artesans (even Master level salary is 1.75 mil/year). But this one will be listed right away at a high price, the merchant knows what is merchandise. The Changelog gives no other recent trades for the suit so almost a quick double can be had at 11 mil ask. There are 2 other suits offered for cheaper though.

The pigs and DIS have been restocked by the seller. Some time ago Martti speculated what would happen to pigs, and the rule (max 4) stayed in force, and more are for sale now at 3 mil/piece. Good side: Martti can revise up the value of his existing pigs. Bad side: cornering the market did not work. Also MUS, CAN, BEER and MEAD production just came, which concerns Martti with his multiple mead production items and the herb garden.

With balance negative, no bids can be placed, and nothing is so lucrative to sell that Martti would want to do it. So let's play risky and hope some cash flow emerges from the asks. If only cancelling bids is functional, the business grinds to a halt very soon.

Meanwhile massive developments are happening in the game mechanics. There is even a revised map of CryptoTown, showing all the 225 chapelries and the planned fortifications around the town, gates, and major roads. There is no time like this to be a real estate baron, Martti thinks, counting his 1 gold coin and occasionally delving into LotRaffle if the location is known beforehand.

The new Wisdom & Culture module does not concern too much; the only difference to a commoner is that it makes sense to always consume the full amount of CAN, unless destitute.


The commoner promotion rounds are now scheduled to happen every 3 years only, with the expectation that:
- L4 could be got 3 years from L3
- L5 could be got 6 years from L4
- L6 could be got 9 years from L5
Getting them before would be possible but difficult. So the promotion round coming up in 1.5 years is very interesting. With some luck and foolhardy play (going into debt, keeping the red suit, donating to good causes, gaining the copper collector badge, buying a sword and a horse, etc.etc) it is doable. Whether it pays off, is another thing, because the next level has its own set of criteria...

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