perjantai 5. helmikuuta 2016

September 1625 - Day 25

Gilded Goose is a magnificent place, somewhat reminiscent of the House of Magnificence actually, but with the difference that below the dome, two equally high floors exist. The upper one is Restaurant and the below is a Caviar and Vodka bar. The game has 2 brands of vodka, domestic before-earthquake VOH (more than 25 years old by now), and newer VOD. The former is 3 times as healthy and 4 times as expensive, therefore a good option for those who have both the money and a ravenous health challenge.

Martti does not have either, and will not for a long time, since health challenges get worse until 90 years, then they stay the same. A new mechanic, sickness, is being experimented in the game, starting from those who are 200+ years. It requires not only the choicest of drinks, but also other exercise, and even then, it may not be possible to avoid some loss of health. (Avoiding all loss is possible in ordinary health challenges, just the last 6 feet tend to double the total cost.)

But the visit turned out to be way more rewarding than Martti had even dreamed. He suddenly owns not one, but even two houses! How did that come to be?? The owner of the place, Prince Noms, the Margrave of White Cross, Councillor, CEO of Palazzo, etc(x2) was sitting there alone in one table sipping clear liquor and concentrated on his work. Martti decided to approach him with the question whether house buying from Church (they sell small stone huts 6 mil apiece) is possible even for those who own land but no house already.

He said that he is not even involved with the church, but knows the rules that new characters can buy up to 2 such houses. Martti knew that Bank can help in the financing, but only up to 50% of the price. So he asked the Prince if he could give a private loan, with 3x the interest rate that CON pays (1.8% APR vs. 0.6% of CON). To his surprise, the Prince gave the full 12 mil for 15 years under such conditions, with the properties mortgaged to be the guarantee!!

Martti was so stunned of the developments that he perhaps made a slightly non-optimal choice: 4-NW-D4 and 4-NW-D5. They are near The Marquess of Grass' Kronic Research Center, and have 20 meters roadside, but are also near the impassable swamps that are believed to be unhealthy. Taking the very NW corner of the chapelry would have given 20 m roadside but facing south, instead of north, and nearer to parks and further away from swamps, at a cost of 100 more paces to the center of B.4.

Oh well, only the players decide if the market value of these or those is better in a few decades. Right now Martti is entitled to live in one of them (as residence, it produces 1*CUL, 1*IC per year - designating a building "residence" has historically been a privilege compared to rental, because of the high value of IC compared to m) and the other one is a rental, giving about 2.7% after-tax profit. Compared to the 1.8% loan, this leverage should slightly be profitable even in cash-flow basis, and the increase in value of the land would be the real deal: when the free lots and cheap houses are doled out and their owners enriched themselves (with 100-200 players, this game is in an extremely early adopter mode still!), one such lot would be worth manifold.

Checking the possessions, it immediately struck that the balance was 8.5 mil! Quick check revealed that one pig was sold at the ask. The political situation with pigs is that some nobles don't want too many pigs in town because they give a "countryside feeling", also they hurt the manor lords' businesses with meat (who wants people to be self-sufficient, if they can profit off of them not being such?) When the 50 pigs ran out, no new ones have been added, and Martti knows the fair price of a pig is only 2 mil. It is possible that:
a) new pigs come but only at higher than 2 mil
b) new pigs come at 2 mil
c) new pigs don't come and only the existing ones are allowed to stay
d) a regulation comes to disallow keeping even 4 pigs (200*MEAT per year - it is actually in the works to limit this to 50*MEAT when Wood Building major game module comes but that one has been in planning for 15 years already...)
e) whatever.
Because future is uncertain, but meat is good, Martti makes a replenishment bid at 2,000,001 m. This gives any of the existing holders the incentive to cash out at a psychological profit and if new pigs come at 2 mil, buys one of them immediately before others have a chance to scoop them up.


To celebrate the victory of becoming a real estate mogul, Martti uncorked one of the W1608 the King had given (to all characters in L4 and higher in the Jubilee) and headed to the Palazzo Casino in the historical Casino building in 1-C. This detour caused the loss of all except one of the CT1625 (total loss about 0.5 mil) and the resolve that Martti will never again gamble just for fun. The only reason from now on is the utility function (trying to increase the cash position over a certain beneficial threshold to gain some advantage, while accepting the expected loss, because without playing, the cash would not be enough to take advantage of the situation anyway so a small monetary -EV can be justified by a +EV in the utility function.

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